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Rayo Majadahonda vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Getafe II
Getafe II
2/10/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda47%
×Draw33%
Getafe II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
1.08
Getafe II
0.60

Rayo Majadahonda creates 80% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.08
Getafe II
0.62

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
0.58
Getafe II
1.08

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
80%
Rayo Majadahonda or Getafe II
67%
Draw or Getafe II
53%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
20%
Getafe II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
66%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
29%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
10%
Getafe II 1+ goals
45%
Getafe II 2+ goals
12%
Getafe II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
70%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.08 + Getafe II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Getafe II attack 0.62 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
47%
level
33%
Getafe II scores more
20%

Rayo Majadahonda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Rayo Majadahonda 1–1 Getafe II

Rayo Majadahonda and Getafe II drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.