Rayo Majadahonda 2–0 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Getafe II

10/6/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda46%

×Draw27%

Getafe II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.97

Rayo Majadahonda

1.37

Getafe II

0.97

Rayo Majadahonda creates 41% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 14 away

1.17

creates per match

0.86

1.07

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.17

Getafe II

0.86

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.07

Getafe II

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Getafe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

73%

Rayo Majadahonda or Getafe II

73%

Draw or Getafe II

54%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

22%

Getafe II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

75%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

40%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

16%

Getafe II 1+ goals

62%

Getafe II 2+ goals

25%

Getafe II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

63%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Getafe II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Getafe II attack 0.86 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

46%

level

27%

Getafe II scores more

27%

Rayo Majadahonda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff