Rayo Majadahonda 1–0 Cultural Leonesa

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cultural Leonesa

3/4/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda39%

×Draw28%

Cultural Leonesa33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchCultural Leonesa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.11

Rayo Majadahonda

1.24

Cultural Leonesa

1.11

Rayo Majadahonda creates 12% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 88 away

1.17

creates per match

1.16

1.07

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.17

Cultural Leonesa

1.16

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.07

Cultural Leonesa

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Cultural Leonesa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

67%

Rayo Majadahonda or Cultural Leonesa

72%

Draw or Cultural Leonesa

61%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

17%

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

71%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

35%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

13%

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals

67%

Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals

30%

Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

54%

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

39%

level

28%

Cultural Leonesa scores more

33%

Rayo Majadahonda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff