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Cultural Leonesa vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
11/6/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Cultural Leonesa49%
×Draw27%
Rayo Majadahonda25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.44
Rayo Majadahonda
0.94

Cultural Leonesa creates 53% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 72 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.41
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.91
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
75%
Cultural Leonesa or Rayo Majadahonda
73%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
51%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
24%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
76%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
42%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
18%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
61%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
24%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
66%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.91 · 88 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.41 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
49%
level
27%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
25%

Cultural Leonesa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cultural Leonesa vs Rayo Majadahonda

Rayo Majadahonda beat Cultural Leonesa 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.