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Rayo Majadahonda vs Alcorcon — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
11/26/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda30%
×Draw30%
Alcorcon41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayo Majadahonda
0.95
Alcorcon
1.17

Alcorcon creates 23% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.17
Alcorcon
1.26

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda
1.07
Alcorcon
0.74

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw
59%
Rayo Majadahonda or Alcorcon
70%
Draw or Alcorcon
70%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
11%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
61%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
25%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
7%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
69%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
33%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
42%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Alcorcon defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.95

Alcorcon attack 1.26 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more
30%
level
30%
Alcorcon scores more
41%

Alcorcon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Rayo Majadahonda 1–2 Alcorcon

Alcorcon beat Rayo Majadahonda 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 26, 2022.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.