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Alcorcon vs Rayo Majadahonda — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Rayo Majadahonda
Rayo Majadahonda
4/29/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alcorcon56%
×Draw26%
Rayo Majadahonda18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.50
Rayo Majadahonda
0.71

Alcorcon creates 111% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.53
Rayo Majadahonda
0.96

allows per match

Alcorcon
0.47
Rayo Majadahonda
1.46

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
82%
Alcorcon or Rayo Majadahonda
74%
Draw or Rayo Majadahonda
44%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
29%
Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
78%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
44%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
19%
Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals
51%
Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals
16%
Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
76%
Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.53 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Alcorcon defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Alcorcon scores more
56%
level
26%
Rayo Majadahonda scores more
18%

Alcorcon at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcon vs Rayo Majadahonda

Alcorcon beat Rayo Majadahonda 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.