Rayo Ibense 3–0 Burriana: Result & Stats

Rayo Ibense

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burriana

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 10Estadio Francisco Vilaplana Mariel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rayo Ibense48%

×Draw27%

Burriana25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo IbenseExpected goals in this matchBurriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.91

Rayo Ibense

1.38

Burriana

0.91

Rayo Ibense creates 52% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

1.10

creates per match

0.53

1.29

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Rayo Ibense

1.10

Burriana

0.53

allows per match

Rayo Ibense

1.29

Burriana

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Burriana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Ibense ↓

Burriana →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rayo Ibense or draw

75%

Rayo Ibense or Burriana

73%

Draw or Burriana

52%

Winning margin

Rayo Ibense wins by 2+

23%

Burriana wins by 2+

Team goals

Rayo Ibense 1+ goals

75%

Rayo Ibense 2+ goals

40%

Rayo Ibense 3+ goals

16%

Burriana 1+ goals

60%

Burriana 2+ goals

23%

Burriana 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)

66%

Burriana (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rayo Ibense at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.29 · 49 matches

Burriana away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Ibense attack 1.10 + Burriana defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Burriana attack 0.53 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rayo Ibense scores more

48%

level

27%

Burriana scores more

25%

Rayo Ibense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rayo Ibense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff