Burriana 0–0 Rayo Ibense: Result & Stats

Burriana

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Ibense

3/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 27Camp de Futbol Joan B. Planelles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Burriana49%

×Draw28%

Rayo Ibense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BurrianaExpected goals in this matchRayo Ibense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.84

Burriana

1.36

Rayo Ibense

0.84

Burriana creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 49 away

1.00

creates per match

0.63

1.06

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Burriana

1.00

Rayo Ibense

0.63

allows per match

Burriana

1.06

Rayo Ibense

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burriana+0.00on par

Rayo Ibense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burriana ↓

Rayo Ibense →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Burriana or draw

77%

Burriana or Rayo Ibense

72%

Draw or Rayo Ibense

51%

Winning margin

Burriana wins by 2+

23%

Rayo Ibense wins by 2+

Team goals

Burriana 1+ goals

74%

Burriana 2+ goals

39%

Burriana 3+ goals

16%

Rayo Ibense 1+ goals

57%

Rayo Ibense 2+ goals

21%

Rayo Ibense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Burriana (draw refunded)

68%

Rayo Ibense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burriana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Rayo Ibense away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burriana attack 1.00 + Rayo Ibense defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Rayo Ibense attack 0.63 + Burriana defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Burriana scores more

49%

level

28%

Rayo Ibense scores more

23%

Burriana at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Burriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff