Rayka Babol 1–0 Navad Urmia: Result & Stats

Rayka Babol

FT

1 – 0

Navad Urmia

7/4/2021

Azadegan League · Round 32Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rayka Babol48%

×Draw33%

Navad Urmia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayka BabolExpected goals in this matchNavad Urmia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.55

Rayka Babol

1.08

Navad Urmia

0.55

Rayka Babol creates 96% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

1.08

creates per match

0.38

0.73

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Rayka Babol

1.08

Navad Urmia

0.38

allows per match

Rayka Babol

0.73

Navad Urmia

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Navad Urmia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw

81%

Rayka Babol or Navad Urmia

67%

Draw or Navad Urmia

52%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+

20%

Navad Urmia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals

66%

Rayka Babol 2+ goals

29%

Rayka Babol 3+ goals

10%

Navad Urmia 1+ goals

42%

Navad Urmia 2+ goals

11%

Navad Urmia 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)

72%

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.08 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Navad Urmia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Navad Urmia attack 0.38 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rayka Babol scores more

48%

level

33%

Navad Urmia scores more

19%

Rayka Babol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff