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Navad Urmia vs Rayka Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
0 – 0
Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
2/20/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Takhti Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navad Urmia41%
×Draw31%
Rayka Babol28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
1.09
Rayka Babol
0.84

Navad Urmia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 51 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.82
Rayka Babol
0.80

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.88
Rayka Babol
1.37

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Rayka Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
72%
Navad Urmia or Rayka Babol
69%
Draw or Rayka Babol
59%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
17%
Rayka Babol wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
66%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
30%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
10%
Rayka Babol 1+ goals
57%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
21%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
60%
Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.88 · 65 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.82 + Rayka Babol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.09

Rayka Babol attack 0.80 + Navad Urmia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
41%
level
31%
Rayka Babol scores more
28%

Navad Urmia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Navad Urmia 0–0 Rayka Babol

Navad Urmia and Rayka Babol drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex in Urmia.