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Rayka Babol vs Machine Sazi FC — Azadegan League 2018

Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
FT
2 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
10/23/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rayka Babol69%
×Draw20%
Machine Sazi FC12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayka Babol
2.04
Machine Sazi FC
0.70

Rayka Babol creates 191% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 18 away

creates per match

Rayka Babol
1.08
Machine Sazi FC
0.67

allows per match

Rayka Babol
0.73
Machine Sazi FC
3.00

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw
88%
Rayka Babol or Machine Sazi FC
80%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
31%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+
43%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals
87%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
60%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
33%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
50%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
16%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
85%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Machine Sazi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.67 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rayka Babol scores more
69%
level
20%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
12%

Rayka Babol at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Rayka Babol 2–0 Machine Sazi FC

Rayka Babol beat Machine Sazi FC 2-0 in Azadegan League on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.