Machine Sazi FC 1–1 Rayka Babol: Result & Stats

Machine Sazi FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rayka Babol

2/26/2022

Azadegan League · Round 19Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Machine Sazi FC31%

×Draw26%

Rayka Babol43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machine Sazi FCExpected goals in this matchRayka Babol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.43

Machine Sazi FC

1.16

Rayka Babol

1.43

Rayka Babol creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 51 away

0.94

creates per match

0.80

2.06

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Machine Sazi FC

0.94

Rayka Babol

0.80

allows per match

Machine Sazi FC

2.06

Rayka Babol

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machine Sazi FC ↓

Rayka Babol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Machine Sazi FC or draw

57%

Machine Sazi FC or Rayka Babol

74%

Draw or Rayka Babol

69%

Winning margin

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

12%

Rayka Babol wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

69%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

32%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

11%

Rayka Babol 1+ goals

76%

Rayka Babol 2+ goals

42%

Rayka Babol 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

41%

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.94 + Rayka Babol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Rayka Babol attack 0.80 + Machine Sazi FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Machine Sazi FC scores more

31%

level

26%

Rayka Babol scores more

43%

Rayka Babol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff