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Rayka Babol vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
FT
0 – 0
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
8/27/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rayka Babol38%
×Draw30%
Baderan Tehran32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayka Babol
1.09
Baderan Tehran
0.97

Rayka Babol creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rayka Babol
1.08
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Rayka Babol
0.73
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw
68%
Rayka Babol or Baderan Tehran
70%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
62%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+
15%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals
66%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
30%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
10%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
62%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
25%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
54%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rayka Babol scores more
38%
level
30%
Baderan Tehran scores more
32%

Rayka Babol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayka Babol vs Baderan Tehran

Rayka Babol and Baderan Tehran drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on August 27, 2019.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.