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Baderan Tehran vs Rayka Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
FT
3 – 1
Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
7/12/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Baderan Tehran48%
×Draw29%
Rayka Babol24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baderan Tehran
1.29
Rayka Babol
0.82

Baderan Tehran creates 57% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 51 away

creates per match

Baderan Tehran
1.22
Rayka Babol
0.80

allows per match

Baderan Tehran
0.84
Rayka Babol
1.37

finishing

Baderan Tehran+0.00on par
Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baderan Tehran ↓

Rayka Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baderan Tehran or draw
76%
Baderan Tehran or Rayka Babol
71%
Draw or Rayka Babol
52%

Winning margin

Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
22%
Rayka Babol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
72%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
37%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
14%
Rayka Babol 1+ goals
56%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
20%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
67%
Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baderan Tehran at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.84 · 50 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Rayka Babol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rayka Babol attack 0.80 + Baderan Tehran defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Baderan Tehran scores more
48%
level
29%
Rayka Babol scores more
24%

Baderan Tehran at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Baderan Tehran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Baderan Tehran 3–1 Rayka Babol

Baderan Tehran beat Rayka Babol 3-1 in Azadegan League on July 12, 2021.

The match was played at Martyrs Stadium Islamshahr in Eslamshahr.