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Rayka Babol vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
8/16/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rayka Babol47%
×Draw29%
Arman Gohar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rayka Babol
1.26
Arman Gohar
0.81

Rayka Babol creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Rayka Babol
1.08
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Rayka Babol
0.73
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Rayka Babol+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayka Babol ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rayka Babol or draw
76%
Rayka Babol or Arman Gohar
71%
Draw or Arman Gohar
53%

Winning margin

Rayka Babol wins by 2+
21%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rayka Babol 1+ goals
72%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
36%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
13%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
56%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
19%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
66%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayka Babol at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayka Babol attack 1.08 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Rayka Babol defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rayka Babol scores more
47%
level
29%
Arman Gohar scores more
24%

Rayka Babol at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rayka Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rayka Babol vs Arman Gohar

Rayka Babol beat Arman Gohar 3-0 in Azadegan League on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.