Arman Gohar 3–3 Rayka Babol: Result & Stats

Arman Gohar

FT

3 – 3

Rayka Babol

12/22/2020

Azadegan League · Round 6Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Arman Gohar52%

×Draw27%

Rayka Babol22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arman GoharExpected goals in this matchRayka Babol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.84

Arman Gohar

1.46

Rayka Babol

0.84

Arman Gohar creates 74% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

1.54

creates per match

0.80

0.88

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Arman Gohar

1.54

Rayka Babol

0.80

allows per match

Arman Gohar

0.88

Rayka Babol

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Rayka Babol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw

78%

Arman Gohar or Rayka Babol

73%

Draw or Rayka Babol

48%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+

26%

Rayka Babol wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals

77%

Arman Gohar 2+ goals

43%

Arman Gohar 3+ goals

18%

Rayka Babol 1+ goals

57%

Rayka Babol 2+ goals

21%

Rayka Babol 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)

70%

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Rayka Babol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rayka Babol attack 0.80 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arman Gohar scores more

52%

level

27%

Rayka Babol scores more

22%

Arman Gohar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff