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Raya2 vs Pumas Tabasco — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Raya2
Raya2
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
10/12/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 17Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Raya239%
×Draw27%
Pumas Tabasco34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raya2
1.31
Pumas Tabasco
1.19

Raya2 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 50 away

creates per match

Raya2
1.03
Pumas Tabasco
1.26

allows per match

Raya2
1.11
Pumas Tabasco
1.60

finishing

Raya2+0.00on par
Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raya2 ↓

Pumas Tabasco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Raya2 or draw
66%
Raya2 or Pumas Tabasco
73%
Draw or Pumas Tabasco
61%

Winning margin

Raya2 wins by 2+
18%
Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Raya2 1+ goals
73%
Raya2 2+ goals
38%
Raya2 3+ goals
14%
Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
70%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
33%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Raya2 (draw refunded)
54%
Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raya2 at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Pumas Tabasco away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raya2 attack 1.03 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pumas Tabasco attack 1.26 + Raya2 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Raya2 scores more
39%
level
27%
Pumas Tabasco scores more
34%

Raya2 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Raya2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Raya2 2–2 Pumas Tabasco

Raya2 and Pumas Tabasco drew 2-2 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.