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Pumas Tabasco vs Raya2 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Pumas Tabasco
Pumas Tabasco
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Raya2
Raya2
3/26/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pumas Tabasco31%
×Draw30%
Raya239%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pumas Tabasco
0.99
Raya2
1.14

Raya2 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Pumas Tabasco
0.78
Raya2
0.94

allows per match

Pumas Tabasco
1.34
Raya2
1.21

finishing

Pumas Tabasco+0.00on par
Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pumas Tabasco ↓

Raya2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Pumas Tabasco or draw
61%
Pumas Tabasco or Raya2
70%
Draw or Raya2
69%

Winning margin

Pumas Tabasco wins by 2+
12%
Raya2 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pumas Tabasco 1+ goals
63%
Pumas Tabasco 2+ goals
26%
Pumas Tabasco 3+ goals
8%
Raya2 1+ goals
68%
Raya2 2+ goals
32%
Raya2 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pumas Tabasco (draw refunded)
45%
Raya2 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pumas Tabasco at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pumas Tabasco attack 0.78 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.99

Raya2 attack 0.94 + Pumas Tabasco defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pumas Tabasco scores more
31%
level
30%
Raya2 scores more
39%

Raya2 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Raya2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Pumas Tabasco 1–3 Raya2

Raya2 beat Pumas Tabasco 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Villahermosa in Villahermosa.