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Raya2 vs CA La Paz — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Raya2
Raya2
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CA La Paz
CA La Paz
2/7/2023Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 6Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Raya250%
×Draw24%
CA La Paz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raya2
1.65
CA La Paz
1.10

Raya2 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 64 away

creates per match

Raya2
1.03
CA La Paz
1.09

allows per match

Raya2
1.11
CA La Paz
2.28

finishing

Raya2+0.00on par
CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raya2 ↓

CA La Paz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Raya2 or draw
75%
Raya2 or CA La Paz
76%
Draw or CA La Paz
50%

Winning margin

Raya2 wins by 2+
27%
CA La Paz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Raya2 1+ goals
81%
Raya2 2+ goals
49%
Raya2 3+ goals
23%
CA La Paz 1+ goals
67%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
30%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Raya2 (draw refunded)
66%
CA La Paz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raya2 at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raya2 attack 1.03 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.65

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Raya2 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Raya2 scores more
50%
level
24%
CA La Paz scores more
25%

Raya2 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Raya2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raya2 vs CA La Paz

Raya2 beat CA La Paz 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 7, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.