Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CA La Paz vs Raya2 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

CA La Paz
CA La Paz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raya2
Raya2
8/24/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Guaycura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

CA La Paz45%
×Draw26%
Raya230%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA La Paz
1.50
Raya2
1.17

CA La Paz creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 34 away

creates per match

CA La Paz
1.78
Raya2
0.94

allows per match

CA La Paz
1.41
Raya2
1.21

finishing

CA La Paz+0.00on par
Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA La Paz ↓

Raya2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CA La Paz or draw
70%
CA La Paz or Raya2
74%
Draw or Raya2
55%

Winning margin

CA La Paz wins by 2+
22%
Raya2 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CA La Paz 1+ goals
78%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
44%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
19%
Raya2 1+ goals
69%
Raya2 2+ goals
33%
Raya2 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CA La Paz (draw refunded)
60%
Raya2 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA La Paz at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA La Paz attack 1.78 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Raya2 attack 0.94 + CA La Paz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CA La Paz scores more
45%
level
26%
Raya2 scores more
30%

CA La Paz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CA La Paz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA La Paz vs Raya2

CA La Paz beat Raya2 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Guaycura in La Paz.