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Ravshan Zafarobod vs Khujand — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Ravshan Zafarobod
Ravshan Zafarobod
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Khujand
Khujand
10/9/2022Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 17Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ravshan Zafarobod26%
×Draw24%
Khujand50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ravshan Zafarobod
1.13
Khujand
1.66

Khujand creates 47% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 97 away

creates per match

Ravshan Zafarobod
0.91
Khujand
1.31

allows per match

Ravshan Zafarobod
2.00
Khujand
1.34

finishing

Ravshan Zafarobod+0.00on par
Khujand+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan Zafarobod ↓

Khujand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Ravshan Zafarobod or draw
50%
Ravshan Zafarobod or Khujand
76%
Draw or Khujand
74%

Winning margin

Ravshan Zafarobod wins by 2+
10%
Khujand wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ravshan Zafarobod 1+ goals
68%
Ravshan Zafarobod 2+ goals
31%
Ravshan Zafarobod 3+ goals
11%
Khujand 1+ goals
81%
Khujand 2+ goals
49%
Khujand 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ravshan Zafarobod (draw refunded)
34%
Khujand (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan Zafarobod at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Khujand away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan Zafarobod attack 0.91 + Khujand defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Khujand attack 1.31 + Ravshan Zafarobod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ravshan Zafarobod scores more
26%
level
24%
Khujand scores more
50%

Khujand at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Ravshan Zafarobod 2–1 Khujand

Ravshan Zafarobod beat Khujand 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Khujand.