Khujand 3–0 Ravshan Zafarobod: Result & Stats

Khujand

FT

3 – 0

Ravshan Zafarobod

4/10/2022

Vysshaya Liga · Round 2Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Khujand60%

×Draw22%

Ravshan Zafarobod18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhujandExpected goals in this matchRavshan Zafarobod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

0.95

Khujand

1.91

Ravshan Zafarobod

0.95

Khujand creates 101% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 11 away

1.64

creates per match

1.00

0.90

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Khujand

1.64

Ravshan Zafarobod

1.00

allows per match

Khujand

0.90

Ravshan Zafarobod

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par

Ravshan Zafarobod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Ravshan Zafarobod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Khujand or draw

82%

Khujand or Ravshan Zafarobod

78%

Draw or Ravshan Zafarobod

40%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+

35%

Ravshan Zafarobod wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals

85%

Khujand 2+ goals

57%

Khujand 3+ goals

30%

Ravshan Zafarobod 1+ goals

61%

Ravshan Zafarobod 2+ goals

25%

Ravshan Zafarobod 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)

77%

Ravshan Zafarobod (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.90 · 98 matches

Ravshan Zafarobod away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.64 + Ravshan Zafarobod defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.91

Ravshan Zafarobod attack 1.00 + Khujand defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Khujand scores more

60%

level

22%

Ravshan Zafarobod scores more

18%

Khujand at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff