Ravshan Zafarobod 0–4 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Ravshan Zafarobod

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Istiqlol

6/21/2022

Vysshaya Liga · Round 9Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ravshan Zafarobod11%

×Draw18%

Istiqlol71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ravshan ZafarobodExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

2.26

Ravshan Zafarobod

0.77

Istiqlol

2.26

Istiqlol creates 194% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 100 away

0.91

creates per match

2.52

2.00

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Ravshan Zafarobod

0.91

Istiqlol

2.52

allows per match

Ravshan Zafarobod

2.00

Istiqlol

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ravshan Zafarobod+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan Zafarobod ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–111%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ravshan Zafarobod or draw

29%

Ravshan Zafarobod or Istiqlol

82%

Draw or Istiqlol

89%

Winning margin

Ravshan Zafarobod wins by 2+

3%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Ravshan Zafarobod 1+ goals

54%

Ravshan Zafarobod 2+ goals

18%

Ravshan Zafarobod 3+ goals

4%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

89%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

66%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Ravshan Zafarobod (draw refunded)

14%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan Zafarobod at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.52, concedes 0.63 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan Zafarobod attack 0.91 + Istiqlol defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.77

Istiqlol attack 2.52 + Ravshan Zafarobod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Ravshan Zafarobod scores more

11%

level

18%

Istiqlol scores more

71%

Istiqlol at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Ravshan Zafarobod 0–4 Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Ravshan Zafarobod 4-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti in Khujand.

Ravshan Zafarobod vs Istiqlol — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Vysshaya Liga: Ravshan Zafarobod 0–4 Istiqlol