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Istiqlol vs Ravshan Zafarobod — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
7 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ravshan Zafarobod
Ravshan Zafarobod
6/26/2022Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 10Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Istiqlol77%
×Draw14%
Ravshan Zafarobod8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
2.69
Ravshan Zafarobod
0.77

Istiqlol creates 249% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 11 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
3.20
Ravshan Zafarobod
1.00

allows per match

Istiqlol
0.53
Ravshan Zafarobod
2.18

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Ravshan Zafarobod+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Ravshan Zafarobod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
92%
Istiqlol or Ravshan Zafarobod
86%
Draw or Ravshan Zafarobod
23%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
56%
Ravshan Zafarobod wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
93%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
74%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
49%
Ravshan Zafarobod 1+ goals
54%
Ravshan Zafarobod 2+ goals
18%
Ravshan Zafarobod 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
90%
Ravshan Zafarobod (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

Ravshan Zafarobod away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.20 + Ravshan Zafarobod defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.69

Ravshan Zafarobod attack 1.00 + Istiqlol defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Istiqlol scores more
77%
level
14%
Ravshan Zafarobod scores more
8%

Istiqlol at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istiqlol vs Ravshan Zafarobod

Istiqlol beat Ravshan Zafarobod 7-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Gissar.