Raufoss II 1–3 Kongsvinger II: Result & Stats

Raufoss II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Kongsvinger II

8/16/2022

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 16NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Raufoss II41%

×Draw20%

Kongsvinger II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raufoss IIExpected goals in this matchKongsvinger II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.08

Raufoss II

2.13

Kongsvinger II

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.50

creates per match

1.08

3.08

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Raufoss II

1.50

Kongsvinger II

1.08

allows per match

Raufoss II

3.08

Kongsvinger II

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Kongsvinger II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw

61%

Raufoss II or Kongsvinger II

80%

Draw or Kongsvinger II

59%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+

23%

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals

88%

Raufoss II 2+ goals

63%

Raufoss II 3+ goals

35%

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals

87%

Kongsvinger II 2+ goals

61%

Kongsvinger II 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)

51%

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

Kongsvinger II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + Kongsvinger II defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.13

Kongsvinger II attack 1.08 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Raufoss II scores more

41%

level

20%

Kongsvinger II scores more

39%

Raufoss II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Raufoss II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff