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Kongsvinger II vs Raufoss II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Kongsvinger II
Kongsvinger II
FT
4 – 0
Raufoss II
Raufoss II
9/20/20213. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 7Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kongsvinger II71%
×Draw17%
Raufoss II13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kongsvinger II
2.54
Raufoss II
0.98

Kongsvinger II creates 159% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kongsvinger II
2.50
Raufoss II
1.14

allows per match

Kongsvinger II
0.83
Raufoss II
2.57

finishing

Kongsvinger II+0.00on par
Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger II ↓

Raufoss II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kongsvinger II or draw
87%
Kongsvinger II or Raufoss II
83%
Draw or Raufoss II
29%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger II wins by 2+
49%
Raufoss II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kongsvinger II 1+ goals
92%
Kongsvinger II 2+ goals
72%
Kongsvinger II 3+ goals
46%
Raufoss II 1+ goals
62%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
26%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger II (draw refunded)
85%
Raufoss II (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger II attack 2.50 + Raufoss II defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.54

Raufoss II attack 1.14 + Kongsvinger II defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kongsvinger II scores more
71%
level
17%
Raufoss II scores more
13%

Kongsvinger II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Kongsvinger II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Kongsvinger II 4–0 Raufoss II

Kongsvinger II beat Raufoss II 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 20, 2021.

The match was played at Gjemselund Stadion in Kongsvinger.