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Raufoss II vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Raufoss II
Raufoss II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Hødd II
Hødd II
8/21/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 16NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Raufoss II36%
×Draw19%
Hødd II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss II
2.19
Hødd II
2.41

Hødd II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Raufoss II
1.50
Hødd II
1.73

allows per match

Raufoss II
3.08
Hødd II
2.88

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw
56%
Raufoss II or Hødd II
81%
Draw or Hødd II
64%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+
20%
Hødd II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals
89%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
64%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
37%
Hødd II 1+ goals
91%
Hødd II 2+ goals
69%
Hødd II 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)
45%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.19

Hødd II attack 1.73 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Raufoss II scores more
36%
level
19%
Hødd II scores more
44%

Hødd II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raufoss II vs Hødd II

Raufoss II and Hødd II drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 21, 2023.

The match was played at NAMMO stadion in Raufoss.