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Hødd II vs Raufoss II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Hødd II
Hødd II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Raufoss II
Raufoss II
6/26/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 11Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Hødd II58%
×Draw18%
Raufoss II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hødd II
2.63
Raufoss II
1.65

Hødd II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hødd II
2.12
Raufoss II
0.88

allows per match

Hødd II
2.42
Raufoss II
3.15

finishing

Hødd II+0.00on par
Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hødd II ↓

Raufoss II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Hødd II or draw
77%
Hødd II or Raufoss II
82%
Draw or Raufoss II
42%

Winning margin

Hødd II wins by 2+
38%
Raufoss II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hødd II 1+ goals
93%
Hødd II 2+ goals
73%
Hødd II 3+ goals
48%
Raufoss II 1+ goals
81%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
49%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hødd II (draw refunded)
71%
Raufoss II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hødd II at home — creates 2.12, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hødd II attack 2.12 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.63

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Hødd II defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hødd II scores more
58%
level
18%
Raufoss II scores more
23%

Hødd II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hødd II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Hødd II 3–1 Raufoss II

Hødd II beat Raufoss II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 26, 2023.

The match was played at Nye Høddvoll Stadion in Ulsteinvik.