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Raufoss II vs Førde — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Raufoss II
Raufoss II
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Førde
Førde
7/15/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 14NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Raufoss II28%
×Draw19%
Førde53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss II
1.79
Førde
2.50

Førde creates 40% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Raufoss II
1.50
Førde
1.92

allows per match

Raufoss II
3.08
Førde
2.08

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par
Førde+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Førde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw
47%
Raufoss II or Førde
81%
Draw or Førde
72%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+
14%
Førde wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals
83%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
53%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
26%
Førde 1+ goals
92%
Førde 2+ goals
71%
Førde 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)
34%
Førde (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

Førde away — creates 1.92, concedes 2.08 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + Førde defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Førde attack 1.92 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Raufoss II scores more
28%
level
19%
Førde scores more
53%

Førde at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Raufoss II 0–6 Førde

Førde beat Raufoss II 6-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at NAMMO stadion in Raufoss.