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Førde vs Raufoss II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Førde
Førde
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raufoss II
Raufoss II
5/28/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 8Førde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Førde75%
×Draw14%
Raufoss II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Førde
3.00
Raufoss II
1.07

Førde creates 180% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Førde
2.85
Raufoss II
0.88

allows per match

Førde
1.27
Raufoss II
3.15

finishing

Førde+0.00on par
Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Førde ↓

Raufoss II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–19%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Førde or draw
89%
Førde or Raufoss II
86%
Draw or Raufoss II
25%

Winning margin

Førde wins by 2+
56%
Raufoss II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Førde 1+ goals
95%
Førde 2+ goals
79%
Førde 3+ goals
56%
Raufoss II 1+ goals
66%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
29%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Førde (draw refunded)
88%
Raufoss II (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Førde at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Førde attack 2.85 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 3.00

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Førde defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Førde scores more
75%
level
14%
Raufoss II scores more
11%

Førde at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Førde 2–0 Raufoss II

Førde beat Raufoss II 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Førde Stadion in Førde.