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Raufoss II vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Raufoss II
Raufoss II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
9/3/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 19NAMMO stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Raufoss II30%
×Draw20%
Aalesund II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raufoss II
1.73
Aalesund II
2.23

Aalesund II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 33 away

creates per match

Raufoss II
1.50
Aalesund II
1.39

allows per match

Raufoss II
3.08
Aalesund II
1.97

finishing

Raufoss II+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raufoss II ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Raufoss II or draw
51%
Raufoss II or Aalesund II
80%
Draw or Aalesund II
70%

Winning margin

Raufoss II wins by 2+
15%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Raufoss II 1+ goals
82%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
52%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
25%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
89%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
65%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Raufoss II (draw refunded)
38%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raufoss II at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.08 · 26 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raufoss II attack 1.50 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Raufoss II defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Raufoss II scores more
30%
level
20%
Aalesund II scores more
49%

Aalesund II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Raufoss II 1–0 Aalesund II

Raufoss II beat Aalesund II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at NAMMO stadion in Raufoss.