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Aalesund II vs Raufoss II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Raufoss II
Raufoss II
6/4/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 9Ratvika Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aalesund II70%
×Draw15%
Raufoss II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
3.00
Raufoss II
1.34

Aalesund II creates 124% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 26 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
2.84
Raufoss II
0.88

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.81
Raufoss II
3.15

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Raufoss II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Raufoss II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
85%
Aalesund II or Raufoss II
85%
Draw or Raufoss II
30%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
50%
Raufoss II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
95%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
79%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
56%
Raufoss II 1+ goals
74%
Raufoss II 2+ goals
39%
Raufoss II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
83%
Raufoss II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

Raufoss II away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 2.84 + Raufoss II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 3.00

Raufoss II attack 0.88 + Aalesund II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Aalesund II scores more
70%
level
15%
Raufoss II scores more
15%

Aalesund II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aalesund II vs Raufoss II

Aalesund II beat Raufoss II 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Ratvika Stadion in Ålesund.