Ratchaburi 4–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya: Result & Stats

Ratchaburi

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nong Bua Pitchaya

C. Poomkaew 88'

N. Rakotoharimalala 77', 24'

T. Suengchitthawon 74'

3/9/2025

League #296 · Round 25Ratchaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ratchaburi66%

×Draw19%

Nong Bua Pitchaya15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RatchaburiExpected goals in this matchNong Bua Pitchaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.02

Ratchaburi

2.33

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.02

Ratchaburi creates 128% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 3 away

1.66

creates per match

1.00

1.05

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Ratchaburi

1.66

Nong Bua Pitchaya

1.00

allows per match

Ratchaburi

1.05

Nong Bua Pitchaya

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw

85%

Ratchaburi or Nong Bua Pitchaya

81%

Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya

34%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

43%

Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

90%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

67%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

41%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals

64%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals

27%

Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

81%

Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.05 · 82 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 1.66 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.00 + Ratchaburi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ratchaburi scores more

66%

level

19%

Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more

15%

Ratchaburi at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ratchaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

89

N. Rakotoharimalala

Ratchaburi · M

8.9

Match Events

-5'

Gabriel Mutombo

24'

N. Rakotoharimalala↳ K. Chiamudom

46'

M. Haber← C. Srichan

46'

W. Srivichai← Jakkrawut Songma

61'

Jorge Fellipe

64'

Christian Rontini

65'

A. Sorada← K. Chiamudom

66'

W. Namvech← J. Khemdee

70'

Thanawut PhochaiGoal cancelled

74'

T. Suengchitthawon↳ K. Srisuwan

77'

N. Rakotoharimalala↳ T. Tanaka

81'

W. Tanee← C. Rontini

81'

S. Posri← P. Seekaewnit

83'

C. Poomkaew← J. Kaewprom

83'

S. Chakkuprasart← K. Srisuwan

84'

Jakkrit Songma← A. Harntes

88'

C. Poomkaew↳ T. Tanaka

89'

S. Kasonsumol← Tana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RatchaburiNong

Overview

66%Possession34%

21Total Shots11

8Corners6

6Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots11

10On Target3

7Off Target5

4Blocked3

14Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

553Total Passes293

481Accurate Passes213

87%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2