Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Ratchaburi — League #296 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Nong Bua Pitchaya41%
Ratchaburi37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 3 home / 80 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nong Bua Pitchaya ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nong Bua Pitchaya at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches
Ratchaburi away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.55 · 80 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 2.00 + Ratchaburi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77
Ratchaburi attack 1.34 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Nong Bua Pitchaya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Nong Bua Pitchaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Ratchaburi substitutes
Ratchaburi
Lamphun Warrior
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Buriram United
Rayong FC
Prachuap
Chiangrai United
Chonburi FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Uthai Thani
Bangkok United
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Port FC
Ayutthaya FC
KanchanaburiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Ratchaburi on Friday, 25 October 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #296 2026/2027 season.
League #296: Nong Bua Pitchaya 5–3 Ratchaburi
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Ratchaburi 5-3 in League #296 on October 25, 2024.
Goals: A. Waenlor (2'), Abobaker Eisa (26' pen), Jakkrawut Songma (34'), Conrado (45+2'), C. Dépres (51', 70' pen), M. Haber (61'), Kim Ji-Min (90+6' pen).
The match was played at Pitchaya Stadium in Nong Bua Lam Phu.