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Ratchaburi vs Nagoya Grampus — AFC Champions League 2018

Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
6/28/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group G - 3Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ratchaburi11%
×Draw25%
Nagoya Grampus64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ratchaburi
0.50
Nagoya Grampus
1.58

Nagoya Grampus creates 216% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ratchaburi
0.00
Nagoya Grampus
1.50

allows per match

Ratchaburi
1.67
Nagoya Grampus
1.00

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par
Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Nagoya Grampus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–120%
0–216%
0–38%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw
36%
Ratchaburi or Nagoya Grampus
75%
Draw or Nagoya Grampus
89%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+
2%
Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals
39%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
9%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
1%
Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
79%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
47%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
15%
Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 0.00 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.50 + Ratchaburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ratchaburi scores more
11%
level
25%
Nagoya Grampus scores more
64%

Nagoya Grampus at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Ratchaburi 0–4 Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus beat Ratchaburi 4-0 in AFC Champions League on June 28, 2021.

The match was played at Rajamangala National Stadium in Bangkok.