Nagoya Grampus 3–0 Ratchaburi: Result & Stats

Nagoya Grampus

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ratchaburi

7/1/2021

AFC Champions League · Group G - 4Rajamangala National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nagoya Grampus81%

×Draw14%

Ratchaburi5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nagoya GrampusExpected goals in this matchRatchaburi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.38

Nagoya Grampus

2.33

Ratchaburi

0.38

Nagoya Grampus creates 513% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

3.00

creates per match

0.00

0.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus

3.00

Ratchaburi

0.00

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus

0.75

Ratchaburi

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Ratchaburi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw

95%

Nagoya Grampus or Ratchaburi

86%

Draw or Ratchaburi

19%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

58%

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

90%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

67%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

41%

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

32%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

6%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

95%

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Ratchaburi away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 3.00 + Ratchaburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ratchaburi attack 0.00 + Nagoya Grampus defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more

81%

level

14%

Ratchaburi scores more

5%

Nagoya Grampus at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff