Ratchaburi 1–0 Muangthong United: Result & Stats

Ratchaburi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Muangthong United

J. Kaewprom 3'

1/19/2025

League #296 · Round 18Ratchaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ratchaburi34%

×Draw25%

Muangthong United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RatchaburiExpected goals in this matchMuangthong United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.50

Ratchaburi

1.35

Muangthong United

1.50

Muangthong United creates 11% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 22 away

1.66

creates per match

1.95

1.05

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Ratchaburi

1.66

Muangthong United

1.95

allows per match

Ratchaburi

1.05

Muangthong United

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Muangthong United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Muangthong United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw

59%

Ratchaburi or Muangthong United

75%

Draw or Muangthong United

66%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

15%

Muangthong United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

74%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

39%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

15%

Muangthong United 1+ goals

78%

Muangthong United 2+ goals

44%

Muangthong United 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

46%

Muangthong United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.05 · 82 matches

Muangthong United away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 1.66 + Muangthong United defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.35

Muangthong United attack 1.95 + Ratchaburi defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ratchaburi scores more

34%

level

25%

Muangthong United scores more

41%

Muangthong United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Muangthong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

K. Phatomakkakul

Ratchaburi · G

7.9

Match Events

3'

35'

35'

36'

46'

T. Tanaka← Kim Ji-Min

46'

J. Curran← S. Peenagatapho

61'

K. Wattayawong← M. Lorenzen

61'

K. Tasa← S. Panthong

64'

S. Leeaoh← K. Srisuwan

64'

S. Chakkuprasart← G. Mutombo

72'

T. Yoyoei← K. Khamyok

85'

C. Saengdao← A. Cissokho

85'

J. Satham← P. Autra

86'

J. Thongsaengphrao← K. Chiamudom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RatchaburiMuangthong

Overview

33%Possession67%

10Total Shots10

6Corners8

13Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots10

3On Target4

6Off Target3

1Blocked3

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

263Total Passes551

191Accurate Passes473

73%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1