Muangthong United 3–2 Ratchaburi: Result & Stats

Muangthong United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Ratchaburi

P. Arjvirai 89', 25'

M. Lorenzen 5'

Kim Ji-Min 16'

Tana 3'

5/10/2025

FA Cup · Semi-finalsChonburi Daikin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Muangthong United62%

×Draw18%

Ratchaburi20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Muangthong UnitedExpected goals in this matchRatchaburi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.40

Muangthong United

2.54

Ratchaburi

1.40

Muangthong United creates 81% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

3.67

creates per match

2.13

0.67

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Muangthong United

3.67

Ratchaburi

2.13

allows per match

Muangthong United

0.67

Ratchaburi

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Muangthong United+0.00on par

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muangthong United ↓

Ratchaburi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Muangthong United or draw

80%

Muangthong United or Ratchaburi

82%

Draw or Ratchaburi

38%

Winning margin

Muangthong United wins by 2+

41%

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Muangthong United 1+ goals

92%

Muangthong United 2+ goals

72%

Muangthong United 3+ goals

46%

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

75%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

41%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Muangthong United (draw refunded)

76%

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muangthong United at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Ratchaburi away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muangthong United attack 3.67 + Ratchaburi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

Ratchaburi attack 2.13 + Muangthong United defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Muangthong United scores more

62%

level

18%

Ratchaburi scores more

20%

Muangthong United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Muangthong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Tana↳ N. Rakotoharimalala

5'

M. Lorenzen

12'

Kim Ji-Min

16'

Kim Ji-Min↳ Tana

25'

P. Arjvirai↳ M. Lorenzen

35'

S. Kraikruan

47'

K. Tasa

64'

P. Sangkasopha← Kim Ji-Min

87'

N. Rakotoharimalala

87'

P. Autra

89'

P. Arjvirai↳ K. Khamyok

90+2'

J. Satham← K. Tasa

90+2'

C. Dépres← Tana

Muangthong

Ratchaburi

99

2

57

5

10

6

⚽A

▼

27

8

37

9

⚽

▼

Ji-Min

89

A

1

5

4

29

37

14

34

A

Khamyok

9

⚽A

Lorenzen

10

⚽2

Arjvirai

18

▼

Tasa

11

Roback

Manager: G. Lettieri

90+2'▲J. Satham←▼K. Tasa

Muangthong United substitutes

39Satham24Chaikulthewin33Nuntagowat6Yoyoei21Thodsanit36Thodsanid20Strauß3Saengdao40Wattayawong31Kadee23Phosri

Manager: W. Srimaka

64'▲P. Sangkasopha←▼Kim Ji-Min

90+2'▲C. Dépres←▼Tana

Ratchaburi substitutes

23Sangkasopha25Dépres15Promrak88Poomkaew19Peenagatapho39Maunchaingam17Kasonsumol29Chiamudom21Thongsaengphrao77Bolkiah7Tanaka24Namvech

FA Cup: Muangthong United 3–2 Ratchaburi

Muangthong United beat Ratchaburi 3-2 in FA Cup on May 10, 2025.

Goals: Tana (3'), M. Lorenzen (5'), Kim Ji-Min (16'), P. Arjvirai (25', 89').

The match was played at Chonburi Daikin Stadium in Chonburi.

Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi — FA Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Muangthong United 3–2 Ratchaburi