Ratchaburi 1–0 Bangkok United: Result & Stats

Ratchaburi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bangkok United

3/13/2024

League Cup · Round of 16Dragon Solar Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ratchaburi11%

×Draw22%

Bangkok United67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RatchaburiExpected goals in this matchBangkok United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.53

1.73

Ratchaburi

0.53

Bangkok United

1.73

Bangkok United creates 226% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

0.80

creates per match

2.25

1.20

allows per match

0.25

creates per match

Ratchaburi

0.80

Bangkok United

2.25

allows per match

Ratchaburi

1.20

Bangkok United

0.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Bangkok United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ratchaburi ↓

Bangkok United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–118%

0–216%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ratchaburi or draw

33%

Ratchaburi or Bangkok United

78%

Draw or Bangkok United

89%

Winning margin

Ratchaburi wins by 2+

2%

Bangkok United wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Ratchaburi 1+ goals

41%

Ratchaburi 2+ goals

10%

Ratchaburi 3+ goals

2%

Bangkok United 1+ goals

82%

Bangkok United 2+ goals

52%

Bangkok United 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Ratchaburi (draw refunded)

14%

Bangkok United (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ratchaburi at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Bangkok United away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ratchaburi attack 0.80 + Bangkok United defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.53

Bangkok United attack 2.25 + Ratchaburi defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Ratchaburi scores more

11%

level

22%

Bangkok United scores more

67%

Bangkok United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff