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Bangkok United vs Ratchaburi — FA Cup 2018

Bangkok United
Bangkok Unitedadvanced
FT
2 – 1
Ratchaburi
Ratchaburi
4/3/2021FA CupFA Cup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bangkok United51%
×Draw21%
Ratchaburi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangkok United
2.09
Ratchaburi
1.52

Bangkok United creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bangkok United
2.94
Ratchaburi
2.33

allows per match

Bangkok United
0.71
Ratchaburi
1.25

finishing

Bangkok United+0.00on par
Ratchaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangkok United ↓

Ratchaburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Bangkok United or draw
72%
Bangkok United or Ratchaburi
79%
Draw or Ratchaburi
49%

Winning margin

Bangkok United wins by 2+
30%
Ratchaburi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bangkok United 1+ goals
88%
Bangkok United 2+ goals
62%
Bangkok United 3+ goals
34%
Ratchaburi 1+ goals
78%
Ratchaburi 2+ goals
45%
Ratchaburi 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bangkok United (draw refunded)
64%
Ratchaburi (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangkok United at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Ratchaburi away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangkok United attack 2.94 + Ratchaburi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.09

Ratchaburi attack 2.33 + Bangkok United defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bangkok United scores more
51%
level
21%
Ratchaburi scores more
28%

Bangkok United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bangkok United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Bangkok United 2–1 Ratchaburi

Bangkok United beat Ratchaburi 2-1 in FA Cup on April 3, 2021.