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Rasi Salai United vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Rasi Salai United
Rasi Salai United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
11/30/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 14Sisaket Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rasi Salai United61%
×Draw21%
Kasetsart FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rasi Salai United
2.02
Kasetsart FC
1.00

Rasi Salai United creates 102% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 132 away

creates per match

Rasi Salai United
2.18
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Rasi Salai United
1.12
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Rasi Salai United+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rasi Salai United ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rasi Salai United or draw
82%
Rasi Salai United or Kasetsart FC
79%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
39%

Winning margin

Rasi Salai United wins by 2+
37%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rasi Salai United 1+ goals
87%
Rasi Salai United 2+ goals
60%
Rasi Salai United 3+ goals
33%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
63%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
26%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rasi Salai United (draw refunded)
77%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rasi Salai United at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rasi Salai United attack 2.18 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.02

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Rasi Salai United defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rasi Salai United scores more
61%
level
21%
Kasetsart FC scores more
18%

Rasi Salai United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rasi Salai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Rasi Salai United 2–1 Kasetsart FC

Rasi Salai United beat Kasetsart FC 2-1 in Thai League 2 on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at Sisaket Provincial Stadium.