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Kasetsart FC vs Rasi Salai United — Thai League 2 2018

Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rasi Salai United
Rasi Salai United
3/15/2026Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 30Insee Chantarasatit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kasetsart FC30%
×Draw27%
Rasi Salai United43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasetsart FC
1.13
Rasi Salai United
1.40

Rasi Salai United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kasetsart FC
1.32
Rasi Salai United
1.59

allows per match

Kasetsart FC
1.21
Rasi Salai United
0.94

finishing

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par
Rasi Salai United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasetsart FC ↓

Rasi Salai United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kasetsart FC or draw
57%
Kasetsart FC or Rasi Salai United
73%
Draw or Rasi Salai United
70%

Winning margin

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
12%
Rasi Salai United wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
68%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
31%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
11%
Rasi Salai United 1+ goals
75%
Rasi Salai United 2+ goals
41%
Rasi Salai United 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
41%
Rasi Salai United (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasetsart FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 133 matches

Rasi Salai United away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasetsart FC attack 1.32 + Rasi Salai United defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rasi Salai United attack 1.59 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kasetsart FC scores more
30%
level
27%
Rasi Salai United scores more
43%

Rasi Salai United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rasi Salai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Kasetsart FC 0–1 Rasi Salai United

Rasi Salai United beat Kasetsart FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Insee Chantarasatit Stadium.