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Rapperswil vs Luzern II — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Rapperswil
Rapperswil
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Luzern II
Luzern II
4/29/20231. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 30Sportstadion Grünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rapperswil49%
×Draw21%
Luzern II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapperswil
2.12
Luzern II
1.65

Rapperswil creates 28% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 69 away

creates per match

Rapperswil
1.98
Luzern II
2.04

allows per match

Rapperswil
1.26
Luzern II
2.26

finishing

Rapperswil+0.00on par
Luzern II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapperswil ↓

Luzern II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Rapperswil or draw
70%
Rapperswil or Luzern II
79%
Draw or Luzern II
51%

Winning margin

Rapperswil wins by 2+
28%
Luzern II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rapperswil 1+ goals
88%
Rapperswil 2+ goals
62%
Rapperswil 3+ goals
35%
Luzern II 1+ goals
81%
Luzern II 2+ goals
49%
Luzern II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rapperswil (draw refunded)
62%
Luzern II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapperswil at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 88 matches

Luzern II away — creates 2.04, concedes 2.26 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapperswil attack 1.98 + Luzern II defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.12

Luzern II attack 2.04 + Rapperswil defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rapperswil scores more
49%
level
21%
Luzern II scores more
30%

Rapperswil at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rapperswil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rapperswil vs Luzern II

Rapperswil beat Luzern II 4-3 in 1. Liga Promotion on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportstadion Grünfeld in Jona.