Luzern II 1–2 Rapperswil: Result & Stats

Luzern II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rapperswil

9/20/2023

1. Liga Promotion · Round 7Sportanlage Hubelmatt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Luzern II42%

×Draw22%

Rapperswil37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Luzern IIExpected goals in this matchRapperswil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.81

Luzern II

1.93

Rapperswil

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 87 away

2.38

creates per match

1.87

1.74

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Luzern II

2.38

Rapperswil

1.87

allows per match

Luzern II

1.74

Rapperswil

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Luzern II+0.00on par

Rapperswil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luzern II ↓

Rapperswil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Luzern II or draw

63%

Luzern II or Rapperswil

78%

Draw or Rapperswil

58%

Winning margin

Luzern II wins by 2+

23%

Rapperswil wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Luzern II 1+ goals

85%

Luzern II 2+ goals

57%

Luzern II 3+ goals

30%

Rapperswil 1+ goals

84%

Rapperswil 2+ goals

54%

Rapperswil 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Luzern II (draw refunded)

53%

Rapperswil (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luzern II at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.74 · 66 matches

Rapperswil away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luzern II attack 2.38 + Rapperswil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.93

Rapperswil attack 1.87 + Luzern II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Luzern II scores more

42%

level

22%

Rapperswil scores more

37%

Luzern II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Luzern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff