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Rapperswil Jona W vs Aarau W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Rapperswil Jona W
Rapperswil Jona W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aarau W
Aarau W
3/18/2026AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 16Sportstadion Grünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rapperswil Jona W43%
×Draw23%
Aarau W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rapperswil Jona W
1.77
Aarau W
1.58

Rapperswil Jona W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 54 away

creates per match

Rapperswil Jona W
1.07
Aarau W
0.74

allows per match

Rapperswil Jona W
2.41
Aarau W
2.48

finishing

Rapperswil Jona W+0.00on par
Aarau W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapperswil Jona W ↓

Aarau W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rapperswil Jona W or draw
65%
Rapperswil Jona W or Aarau W
77%
Draw or Aarau W
57%

Winning margin

Rapperswil Jona W wins by 2+
22%
Aarau W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rapperswil Jona W 1+ goals
83%
Rapperswil Jona W 2+ goals
53%
Rapperswil Jona W 3+ goals
26%
Aarau W 1+ goals
79%
Aarau W 2+ goals
47%
Aarau W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rapperswil Jona W (draw refunded)
55%
Aarau W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapperswil Jona W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.41 · 41 matches

Aarau W away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.48 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapperswil Jona W attack 1.07 + Aarau W defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.77

Aarau W attack 0.74 + Rapperswil Jona W defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rapperswil Jona W scores more
43%
level
23%
Aarau W scores more
35%

Rapperswil Jona W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rapperswil Jona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AXA Women’s Super League: Rapperswil Jona W 0–0 Aarau W

Rapperswil Jona W and Aarau W drew 0-0 in AXA Women’s Super League on March 18, 2026.

The match was played at Sportstadion Grünfeld in Rapperswil-Jona.