Aarau W 3–2 Rapperswil Jona W: Result & Stats

Aarau W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Rapperswil Jona W

3/9/2024

AXA Women’s Super League · Round 14Sportanlage Schachen - Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Aarau W50%

×Draw22%

Rapperswil Jona W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aarau WExpected goals in this matchRapperswil Jona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.38

Aarau W

1.90

Rapperswil Jona W

1.38

Aarau W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 41 away

0.96

creates per match

0.80

1.95

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Aarau W

0.96

Rapperswil Jona W

0.80

allows per match

Aarau W

1.95

Rapperswil Jona W

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarau W+0.00on par

Rapperswil Jona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarau W ↓

Rapperswil Jona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Aarau W or draw

72%

Aarau W or Rapperswil Jona W

78%

Draw or Rapperswil Jona W

50%

Winning margin

Aarau W wins by 2+

28%

Rapperswil Jona W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Aarau W 1+ goals

85%

Aarau W 2+ goals

56%

Aarau W 3+ goals

29%

Rapperswil Jona W 1+ goals

75%

Rapperswil Jona W 2+ goals

40%

Rapperswil Jona W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Aarau W (draw refunded)

64%

Rapperswil Jona W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarau W at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.95 · 55 matches

Rapperswil Jona W away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarau W attack 0.96 + Rapperswil Jona W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.90

Rapperswil Jona W attack 0.80 + Aarau W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aarau W scores more

50%

level

22%

Rapperswil Jona W scores more

28%

Aarau W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aarau W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff