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Räppe vs Hässleholms IF — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Räppe
Räppe
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Hässleholms IF
Hässleholms IF
9/23/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 22Räppevallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Räppe34%
×Draw24%
Hässleholms IF42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Räppe
1.39
Hässleholms IF
1.57

Hässleholms IF creates 13% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 72 away

creates per match

Räppe
1.67
Hässleholms IF
1.82

allows per match

Räppe
1.32
Hässleholms IF
1.10

finishing

Räppe+0.00on par
Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Räppe ↓

Hässleholms IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Räppe or draw
58%
Räppe or Hässleholms IF
76%
Draw or Hässleholms IF
66%

Winning margin

Räppe wins by 2+
15%
Hässleholms IF wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Räppe 1+ goals
75%
Räppe 2+ goals
40%
Räppe 3+ goals
16%
Hässleholms IF 1+ goals
79%
Hässleholms IF 2+ goals
46%
Hässleholms IF 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Räppe (draw refunded)
45%
Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Räppe at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.32 · 95 matches

Hässleholms IF away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Räppe attack 1.67 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hässleholms IF attack 1.82 + Räppe defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Räppe scores more
34%
level
24%
Hässleholms IF scores more
42%

Hässleholms IF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hässleholms IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Räppe 1–3 Hässleholms IF

Hässleholms IF beat Räppe 3-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Räppevallen in Växjö.