Hässleholms IF 2–1 Räppe: Result & Stats

Hässleholms IF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Räppe

4/12/2024

Division 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 3Österås IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Hässleholms IF50%

×Draw23%

Räppe27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hässleholms IFExpected goals in this matchRäppe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.29

Hässleholms IF

1.81

Räppe

1.29

Hässleholms IF creates 40% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 92 away

2.10

creates per match

1.58

1.00

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Hässleholms IF

2.10

Räppe

1.58

allows per match

Hässleholms IF

1.00

Räppe

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hässleholms IF+0.00on par

Räppe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hässleholms IF ↓

Räppe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hässleholms IF or draw

73%

Hässleholms IF or Räppe

77%

Draw or Räppe

50%

Winning margin

Hässleholms IF wins by 2+

27%

Räppe wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hässleholms IF 1+ goals

84%

Hässleholms IF 2+ goals

54%

Hässleholms IF 3+ goals

27%

Räppe 1+ goals

72%

Räppe 2+ goals

37%

Räppe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hässleholms IF (draw refunded)

64%

Räppe (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hässleholms IF at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 73 matches

Räppe away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.53 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hässleholms IF attack 2.10 + Räppe defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.81

Räppe attack 1.58 + Hässleholms IF defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hässleholms IF scores more

50%

level

23%

Räppe scores more

27%

Hässleholms IF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hässleholms IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff