Rapitenca 2–1 Peralada: Result & Stats

Rapitenca

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Peralada

Paki 75'

Andy Alarcón 33'

Sergi Solans 72'

4/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 29Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca37%

×Draw28%

Peralada35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapitencaExpected goals in this matchPeralada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.16

Rapitenca

1.19

Peralada

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

1.34

creates per match

1.01

1.31

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Rapitenca

1.34

Peralada

1.01

allows per match

Rapitenca

1.31

Peralada

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Peralada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Peralada →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw

65%

Rapitenca or Peralada

72%

Draw or Peralada

63%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+

16%

Peralada wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals

70%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

33%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

12%

Peralada 1+ goals

69%

Peralada 2+ goals

32%

Peralada 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

51%

Peralada (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Peralada away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.04 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Peralada defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Peralada attack 1.01 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rapitenca scores more

37%

level

28%

Peralada scores more

35%

Rapitenca at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rapitenca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Andy Alarcón

46'

Iker Adell← Alex Samper

46'

Marc Medina← Adriá Méndez

60'

Sergi Solans← Marc Nierga

60'

Marc Pijuán← Dani Gómez

69'

Joan Tomás← Carles Gallardo

69'

Llorenç Busquets← Marc Gelmà

72'

Sergi Solans

75'

Paki

84'

Chico← O. Ouhdadi

89'

Joan Sancho← Gerard Vergé

Rapitenca

Peralada

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Josep Aliau

46'▲Iker Adell←▼Alex Samper

84'▲Chico←▼O. Ouhdadi

89'▲Joan Sancho←▼Gerard Vergé

Rapitenca substitutes

AdellChicoSancho

Manager: Miguel Muñoz

46'▲Marc Medina←▼Adriá Méndez

60'▲Sergi Solans←▼Marc Nierga

60'▲Marc Pijuán←▼Dani Gómez

69'▲Joan Tomás←▼Carles Gallardo

69'▲Llorenç Busquets←▼Marc Gelmà

Peralada substitutes

MedinaSolansPijuánTomásBusquets