Peralada 4–0 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Peralada

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rapitenca

Marc Nierga 75', 48'

Jordi Palacios 60'

Sergi Solans 17'

12/8/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadio Municipal de Peralada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Peralada52%

×Draw25%

Rapitenca23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeraladaExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.97

Peralada

1.61

Rapitenca

0.97

Peralada creates 66% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 32 away

1.44

creates per match

0.94

1.00

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Peralada

1.44

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Peralada

1.00

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peralada+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peralada ↓

Rapitenca →

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Peralada or draw

77%

Peralada or Rapitenca

75%

Draw or Rapitenca

48%

Winning margin

Peralada wins by 2+

28%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Peralada 1+ goals

80%

Peralada 2+ goals

48%

Peralada 3+ goals

22%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

62%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

25%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Peralada (draw refunded)

70%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Peralada at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Peralada attack 1.44 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Peralada defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Peralada scores more

52%

level

25%

Rapitenca scores more

23%

Peralada at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Peralada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Sergi Solans

41'

Guillem Martínez← Cesc Martínez

48'

Marc Nierga

56'

Peke← Alex Samper

56'

Z. Kore← Edgar Samper

60'

Jordi Palacios

70'

Joan Tomás← Marc Pijuán

70'

Marc Medina← Sergi Solans

72'

Carles Gallardo← Micaló

72'

Espuña← S. Varese

72'

Guillem Fabregas← Aleix Ruiz

72'

A. Ojeda← Álex Forés

75'

Marc Nierga

77'

Llorenç Busquets← Marc Nierga

Peralada

Rapitenca

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Nierga

⚽

▼

Solans

Manager: Miguel Muñoz

70'▲Joan Tomás←▼Marc Pijuán

70'▲Marc Medina←▼Sergi Solans

72'▲Carles Gallardo←▼Micaló

72'▲Espuña←▼S. Varese

77'▲Llorenç Busquets←▼Marc Nierga

Peralada substitutes

TomásMedinaGallardoEspuñaBusquets

Manager: Albert Company

41'▲Guillem Martínez←▼Cesc Martínez

56'▲Peke←▼Alex Samper

56'▲Z. Kore←▼Edgar Samper

72'▲Guillem Fabregas←▼Aleix Ruiz

72'▲A. Ojeda←▼Álex Forés

Rapitenca substitutes

MartínezPekeKoreFabregasOjeda